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ECONOMICS

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Originally appearing in Volume V08, Page 910 of the 1911 Encyclopedia Britannica.
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ECONOMICS  (from the Gr. oiaovogLK1, sc . TEXvrn, from OtKOS, a See also:

house, and vh,uos, See also:rule,—the " See also:art of See also:household I management "), the See also:general See also:term, with its synonym " See also:political See also:economy," for the See also:science or study of See also:wealth (welfare) and its See also:production, applicable either to the individual, the See also:family, the See also:State, or in the widest sense, the See also:world . How far the same considerations apply to all these See also:spheres—la—one of the problems of economic thought in its widest sense . The term " economy " (q.v.) by itself, which should strictly mean the art of applying See also:money (or wealth) wisely, has commonly come to mean the art of saving money, or spending as .little as possible . In practice the study of " political " economy is mainly devoted to the See also:sphere of the State; the welfare of the individual as a member of the State, and of the State in its relation to the world, being See also:internal aspects of the prosperity of the State itself . Economics thus includes the discussion of all the numerous factors which make See also:life profitable, whether to the nation or to the business, or to the individual See also:man . It may be conceived either as an See also:historical science (What principles have in fact paid ?), or as an abstract science (What are the true principles which must pay, presupposing an ideal ?) . Economists at different times have studied both aspects, according to their See also:lights, and influenced by historical conditions of philosophic thought . A See also:text-See also:book on economics necessarily deals, therefore, with the whole subject in a manner which need not here be followed, since See also:separate articles are devoted in this See also:work to the See also:biographies of writers on economics, and also to the See also:principal economic questions involved, under their own headings . In this See also:article we propose therefore to confine ourselves to discussing the See also:character and subject-See also:matter of the science, indicating its relation to other sciences, and explaining the methods by which economists reach their conclusions . We understand by economics the science which investigates the manner in which nations or other larger or smaller communities, and their individual members, obtain See also:food, clothing, shelter and whatever else is considered desirable or necessary for the See also:maintenance and improvement of the conditions of life . It is thus the study of the life of communities with See also:special reference to one See also:side of their activity .

It necessarily involves the scientific examination of the structure and organization of the community or communities in question; their See also:

history, their customs, See also:laws and institutions; and the relations between their members, in so far as they affect or are affected by this See also:department of their activity . At the See also:root of all economic investigation lies the conception of the See also:standard of life of the community . By this expression we do not mean an ideal mode of living, but the habits and requirements of life generally current in a community or grade of society at a given See also:period . The standard of life of the See also:ordinary well-to-do See also:middle class in See also:England, for example, includes not only food, clothing and shelter of a See also:kind different in many respects from that of a similar class in other countries and of other classes in England, but a highly complicated mechanism, both public and private, for ministering to these See also:primary needs, habits of social intercourse, educational and sanitary organization, recreative arrangements and many other elements . Many influences operating for a See also:long period of See also:time on the character and "the environment of a class go to determine its standard of life . In a See also:modern See also:industrial community it is possible to See also:express this standard fairly accurately for the purposes of economic investigation in terms of money (q.v.) . But it is doubtful whether the most See also:complete investigation would ever enable us to include all the elements of the standard of life in a money estimate . The character, tastes and capacity for management of different individuals and See also:groups differ so widely that equal incomes do not necessarily imply identity of standard . In the investigation of past times, the incommensurate elements of well-being are so numerous that merely money estimates are frequently misleading . The conception of the standard of life involves also some estimate of the efforts and sacrifices See also:people are prepared to make to obtain it; of their ideals and character; of the relative strength of the different motives which usually determine their conduct . But no carefully devised calculus can take the See also:place of insight, observation and experience . The economist should be a man of wide sympathies and See also:practical sagacity, in See also:close See also:touch with men of different grades, and, if possible, experienced in affairs .

It is evident that no permanent See also:

classification is possible of what is or is not of economic significance . No general rules, applicable to all times, can be laid down as to what phenomena must be examined or what may be neglected in economic inquiry . The different departments of human activity are organically connected, and all facts See also:relating to the life of a community have a near or remote economic significance . For See also:short historical periods, indeed, many phenomena, are so remotely connected with the ordinary business of life that we may ignore them . But at any moment special causes may bring into the See also:field of economic inquiry whole departments of life which have hitherto been legitimately ignored . In times past, biblical exegesis, religious ideals, and ecclesiastical organization, the purely political aims of statesmen, See also:chance combinations of party politics and the intrigues of diplomatists, class See also:prejudice, social conventions, apparently sudden changes of economic policy, capricious changes of See also:fashion —all these causes and many others have exerted a See also:direct and immediate See also:influence on the economic life of the community . In our own See also:day we have had many illustrations of the manner in which special circumstances may at once bring an almost unnoticed See also:series of scientific investigations into direct and vital relation with the business world . The economist must, therefore, not only be prepared to take See also:account of the See also:physical features of the world, the general structure and organization of the See also:industry and See also:commerce of different states, the character of their See also:administration and other important causes of economic See also:change . He must be in touch with the actual life of the community he is studying, and cultivate " that openness and alertness of the mind, that sensitiveness of the See also:judgment, which can rapidly grasp the significance of at first sight unrelated discoveries or events." Some people are of See also:opinion that the factors to be taken account of in economic investigation are so numerous that progress on these lines is impossible . It would certainly be impossible if we had to begin de novo to copstruct the whole fabric of economic science . But, as we shall see, it is no more necessary to do this in the world of science than it is in the world of business or politics . There is in existence a vast See also:store of accumulated knowledge, and few, if any, departments of economics have been See also:left quite unilluminated by the researches of former generations .

Progress is the result of See also:

adaptation rather than reconstruction . It must be remembered also that economic work in modern times is carried on by consciously or unconsciously associated effort, and although it must always require high qualities of judgment, capacity and See also:energy, many of the difficulties which at first sight appear so insuperable give way when they are attacked . In some ways also the study of highly See also:developed organizations like the modern industrial state is simpler than that of earlier forms of society . In the earliest times for which we have abundant material the economic life of England had already reached in certain directions a high degree of complexity . Even in the rural districts, manorial records reveal the existence of a See also:great variety of classes and groups of persons engaged in the performance of economic functions . The See also:lord of the See also:manor with his officials and retainers, the peasantry See also:bound to him by ties of See also:personal dependence and mutual rights and obligations, constituted a little world, in which we can See also:watch the See also:play of motives and passions not so dissimilar as we are sometimes led to believe from those of the great modern world . In many a See also:country See also:district the gradations of social See also:rank were more continuous, the opportunities of intercourse more frequent, and the capacity for organization greater than in modern times . The manorial accounts were kept with precision and detail, and we are told that a skilled See also:official could estimate to the utmost See also:farthing the value of the services due from the villein to his lord . The manor was indeed self-sufficient and See also:independent in the sense that it could furnish everything required by the See also:majority of the in-habitants, and that over the greater See also:part of rural England production was not carried on with a view to a distant See also:market . But in the earliest times the manor was subjected to See also:external influences of great importance . Vast areas of the country were in fact under the single See also:control of a territorial lord or an ecclesiastical See also:foundation . Every manor composing these great fiefs was likely to be affected by the policy or the character of the administration of the feudal lord, and he, again, by the policy or the difficulties, the strength or the weakness, of the central See also:government .

See also:

Foreign See also:trade and foreign intercourse were undeveloped, but their influence was in historical times never entirely absent, while the influence of See also:Roman See also:law and the See also:Christian See also:Church constantly tended to modify the manorial organization . In the towns the See also:division of labour had proceeded much further than in the rural districts, and there were in existence organized bodies, such as the Gild See also:Merchant and the crafts, whose functions were primarily economic . But one of the most striking characteristics of See also:town life in the middle ages was the manner in which municipal and industrial privileges and responsibilities were interwoven . In modern times the See also:artisan, however well trained, efficient and painstaking he may be,. does not, in virtue of these qualities, enjoy any municipal or political privileges . By means of his trade See also:union, co-operative society or See also:club he may gain some experience in the management of men and business, and in so far as the want of a sufficient income does not constitute an insuperable difficulty, he may See also:share in the public life of the country . But in his character as Character of subJectmatter . See also:Ancient and modern conditions in England . artisan he enjoys no municipal or political privileges . In the middle ages this differentiation of the industrial, municipal and political life had not taken place, and in See also:order to understand the working of at first sight purely economic regulations it is necessary to make a close study of the functions of See also:local government . But this, after all, does not carry us very far . From the very nature of the records in which we study the town life of the middle ages, it follows that we obtain from them only a one-sided view . No one knows what proportion of the industrial See also:population was included in the organized See also:gilds, or how complete was the control exercised by these bodies over their members .

Elaborate regulations were in force, but no one knows how elastic they were in practice . See also:

Medieval Englishmen were particularly See also:apt to put their aspirations into a legal See also:form, and then See also:rest satisfied with their achievement . The number of regulations is scarcely to be regarded as a test of their administrative success . Further, as the country became more consolidated and the central government extended its authority over economic affairs, new regulations came into force, new See also:organs of government appeared, which were sometimes in conflict, sometimes in See also:harmony, with the existing See also:system, and it becomes for a time far more difficult to obtain a clear view of the actual working of economic institutions . Thus the study of the economic life of the middle ages is one of the most complicated subjects which can engage the See also:attention of man . It is impossible to carry the See also:process of See also:isolation very far . The different threads of social activity are so closely interwoven that we cannot follow any one for very long without forming wrong impressions, and it becomes necessary to turn back and study others which seemed at first sight unrelated to the subject of our investigations . Under an apparently See also:uniform and See also:stable system of social regulation there was much variation and See also:movement, the significance of which it is impossible to estimate . Materials for forming such an estimate no doubt exist, but before doing so we have to study in See also:infinite detail a vast number of separate manors, municipalities or other separate economic areas . This involves great industry on the part of many scientific workers . Meanwhile we can illustrate the economic life of the middle ages, describe its See also:main features, indicate the more important See also:measures of public policy and draw attention to some of the main lines of development . It is only as we approach more modern times that the conditions of economic study are realized and economic science, conditions as we understand it, becomes possible .

Those condiof tions are: (i.) the life of the state or other community economic or communities we are studying must be so differen- adence. tiated that we can isolate those functions which are wholly or predominantly economic . The " separation of employments " is not only a See also:

condition of economic efficiency; it was necessary before we could have an economic science . (ii.) We must be in a position so far to understand and estimate the character and motives of different classes and groups in these communities that we can rightly interpret their See also:action . This condition cannot be realized without great difficulty, for " economic motives " are very different in different periods, nations and classes, and even for short periods of time in the same country are modified by the influence of other motives of an entirely different order . In studying the economic history of the 18th See also:century, for example, it is not enough to assume with See also:Defoe that " gain is the See also:design of merchandise." We have to be saturated, as it were, with 18th-century influences, so that we can realize the conditions in which industry and trade were carried on, before we can rightly explain the course of development . In our own day labour disputes, to take another example, can scarcely ever be resolved into a question of merely pecuniary gain or loss . The significance of the amount of money involved varies greatly for different trades, and can only be understood by reference to the character and habits of the people concerned . But questions of sentiment, See also:shop-feeling and trade customs invariably play an important part . (iii.) Economics can never See also:lead to anything but hypothetical results unless we not only realize that we must " take account of " other than the purely economic factors, See also:bill also give due See also:weight and significance to 90 I these factors . No explanation of the industrial situation in See also:Germany, for example, would be intelligible or satisfactory even from the economic point of view which ignored the significance of the political conditions which Germans have to See also:deal with . So, again, it is impossible to make a useful See also:comparative estimate of the advantages and disadvantages of the transport systems of England, the See also:United States and Germany, unless we keep constantly in view the very different See also:geographical, military and political conditions which these systems have to satisfy . (iv.) Sufficient See also:information must be available to enable us to test the validity of our hypotheses and conclusions .

Whatever . " method " of economic investigation we employ, we must at every See also:

stage see how far our reasoning is See also:borne out by the actual experience of life . This obvious condition of scientific inquiry is very far from being completely realized even at the See also:present time . It implies the existence of a well-trained class engaged in the work of See also:collecting information, and much organization both by the state and private bodies . These four conditions can be reduced to two . The community we are studying must have reached such a stage of development that its economic functions and those immediately cognate to them form a well-defined See also:group, and adequate means must be available so that we can, as it were, watch the performance of these functions and test our hypotheses and conclusions by observation and experience . It is easy to understand, therefore, why we trace the beginnings of economics, so far as England is concerned, in the 16th century, and why the application of strict scientific tests in this subject of human study has become possible only in comparatively See also:recent times . Medieval economics was little more than a casuistical system of elaborate and somewhat artificial rules of conduct . From the close of the middle ages until the middle of the 18th century thousands of See also:pamphlets and other See also:works on economic questions were published, but the vast majority of the writers have little or no scientific importance . Their works frequently contain information given nowhere else, and throw much See also:light on the state of opinion in the See also:age in which they wrote . It is also possible to find in them many anticipations of the views of the economists of later times; but such statements were as a rule generated merely by the See also:heat of controversy on some measure or event of practical importance, and when the controversy died down were seldom regarded or incorporated in a scientific system . Trade See also:bias, personal impressions and guess-work took the place of scientific method .

This was inevitable in the See also:

absence of trustworthy information on an adequate See also:scale, and from the immediately practical aims of the writers . But from the end of the 17th century economics has been definitely recognized as a subject of scientific study . In modern times the conditions which have made economic science possible have also made it necessary . While it is impossible to give a strictly economic See also:interpretation See also:Necessity of the earlier history of nations, economic interests of so govern the life and determine the policy of modern • economic states that other forces, like those of See also:religion and science. politics, seem to play only a subsidiary part, modifying here and there the view which is taken of particular questions, but not changing in any important degree the general course of their development . This may be, in the historical sense, merely a passing phase of human progress, due to the rapid See also:extension of the industrial revolution to all the civilized and many of the uncivilized nations of the world, bringing in its See also:train the consolidation of large areas, a similarity of conditions within them, and amongst peoples and governments a great increase in. the strength of economic motives . When the world has settled down to the new conditions, if it ever does so, we may be See also:con-fronted with problems similar to those which our forefathers had to solve . But, for the time, if we know the economic interests of nations, classes and individuals, we can tell with more accuracy than ever before how in the long run they will See also:act . Public policy therefore requires the closest possible study of the economic forces which are moulding the destinies of the great nations of the world . In most civilized countries except England this is recognized, and adequate See also:provision is made for the study 902 of economic science . But the subject is not only of immediate concern to the state in its corporate and public capacity . The neglect of it in the domain of private business can now only lead to disastrous results . To quote from a useful work' (See also:National See also:Education: a See also:Symposium, 1901), " the commercial supremacy of England was due to a variety of causes, of which See also:superior intelligence, in the ordinary business sense, was not the most important .

Her insular position, continuity of political development and freedom from domestic broils played an important part in bringing about a steady and continuous growth of industry and manufactures for several generations before the modern era . The great See also:

wars of the 18th and the beginning of the 19th century, which arrested the growth of See also:continental nations, gave England the control of the markets of the world . When See also:peace was restored, England enjoyed something in the nature of a See also:monopoly . The competition of See also:France ceased for a time to be an important See also:factor . What is now the See also:German See also:empire was a See also:mere congeries of small states, waging perpetual See also:tariff wars upon each other . In' the old Prussian provinces alone there were fifty-three different customs frontiers, and German manufactures could not develop until the growth of the See also:Zollverein brought with it commercial consolidation, internal freedom and greater homogeneity of economic conditions . The See also:industries of the United States were in their See also:infancy . Thus the productive See also:power of England was unrivalled, and her manufactures and business men, under a regime rapidly approximating to complete freedom of trade, could reap the full advantages to be derived from the See also:possession of great national resources and production by machinery . Commercial supremacy required not so much highly trained intelligence amongst manufacturers and merchants as keen business See also:instinct and a certain See also:rude energy . In the last See also:generation all that has changed, and the change is of a permanent character . The struggle of the future must inevitably be between a number of great nations, more or less equally well equipped, carrying on production by the same general methods, each one trying to strengthen its industrial and commercial position by the See also:adoption of the most highly developed machinery, and all the methods suggested by scientific See also:research, policy or experience . ' Under these conditions, it is no longer possible for the individual merchant, or for small groups of merchants, to acquaint themselves, by personal experience alone, with more than a fractional part of the causes which affect the business in which they are engaged .

The spread of the modern industrial system has brought with it the modern state, with its millions of consumers, its vast See also:

area, its innumerable activities, its complicated See also:code of industrial and commercial law . At the same time, the revolution in the means of transport and communication has destroyed, or is tending to destroy, local markets, and closely interwoven all the business of the world . Events in the most distant countries, industrial and commercial movements at first sight unrelated to the concerns of the individual merchant, now exert a direct and immediate influence upon his interests . The technical training of the factory or the See also:office, the experience of business, the See also:discharge of practical duties, necessary as they are, do not infallibly open the mind to the large issues of the modern business world, and can never confer the detailed acquaintance with facts and principles which See also:lie outside the daily routine of the individual, but are none the less of vital importance." Economics, therefore, under modern conditions, is not only a subject which may usefully occupy the attention of a leisured class of scientific men . It should form part of the training of educated men of all classes, on grounds of public policy and administrative and business efficiency . The relations between economics and other sciences cannot be 'stated in a very general form . They vary for different Relations periods, and are not the same for all branches of between economics . There is no subject of human study which economics may not be at some time or other of economic signifiand other See also:canoe, and anything which affects the character, the sciences ideals or the environment of man may make it necessary . to modify our assumptions and our reasoning with regard to his conduct in economic affairs . But if the economist,while studying one side of man's activities, must also cultivate all other branches of human learning, it is obvious that no substantial progress can be made . The economist frankly assumes the reality of the existing world and takes men as they are, or as they have been if he is studying past times . His assumptions are based upon ordinary observation and experience, and are usually accurate in proportion to his practical shrewdness and sagacity, so that he is not . interested in the speculative flights of See also:philosophy, except in so far as they influence or have influenced conduct . In times past, and to a less extent in our own day, philosophical conceptions have formed the basis of great systems of politics and economics .

The historical relations between philosophy and economics are of great importance in tracing the development of the latter, and have done much to determine its present form . But the modern conception of society or the state owes more to See also:

biology than philosophy, and actual research has destroyed more frequently than it has justified the assumptions of the older philosophical school . Experimental See also:psychology may in course of time have an important bearing on economics, but the older science cannot be said to be of much significance except in its historical aspects . See also:Ethics is in much the same position . That is, it is possible to conceive of an ethical science which would ' extend considerably our knowledge of economic affairs, but no important new principle or See also:original See also:discovery, relevant to economic investigation, has come from that See also:quarter in recent years, and at present ethics has more to learn from economics than the latter has from ethics . It is in the adaptation of biological conceptions and methods, in the See also:positive contributions of See also:jurisprudence, law and history, in the rigorous application, where possible, of quantitative tests, that the explanation of the present position of economics, is to be found . See also:Mathematics has influenced the form and the terminology of the science, and has sometimes been useful in See also:analysis; but mathematical methods of reasoning, in their application to economics, while possessing a certain See also:fascination, are of very doubtful utility . There is no method of investigation which is peculiarly economic or of which economics has the monopoly . In every age economists have applied the methods ordinarily Method of in use amongst scientific men . There would probably economic: have been no controversy at all on this subject but for investi- the fact that economics was elaborated into systematic gation. form, and made the basis of practical measures of the greatest importance, long before the remarkable development in the 19th century of historical research, experimental science and biology . The application of the a priori method in economics was an See also:accident, due to its association with other subjects and the general backwardness of other sciences rather than any exceptional and See also:peculiar character in the subject-matter of the science itself . The methods applied to economics in the 18th and the See also:early part of the 19th century were no more invented with a special view to that subject than the principles of early railway legislation, in the domain of practical policy, were devised with a special view to what was then a new means of transport .

As a matter of fact, discussions of method and the See also:

criticism of hypotheses and assumptions are very rarely found in early economic works . It is only by reference to the prevailing ideas in philosophy and politics that we can discover what was in the minds of their authors . The growth of a science is much like the growth of a constitution . It proceeds by adaptation and precedent . The scientific and historical movement of the 19th century was revolutionary in character . When it began to affect economics, many people were afraid that the whole fabric of science would be destroyed and the practical gains it had achieved, jeopardized . These fears were justified, in so far as those who entertained them shut their eyes to everything new and assumed an attitude of no See also:compromise . Where the newer methods were assimilated, the position of economics was strengthened and its practical utility increased . General discussion of method, however, is rarely profitable . In all branches of economics, even in what is called the pure theory, there is an implied reference to certain historical or existing conditio$ of a more or less definite character; to the established order of an organized state or other community, at a stage of development which in its main features can be recognized . In all economic investigation assumptions must be made, but we must see that they are legitimate in view of the actual life and character of the community or communities which are the subject of investigation . In See also:common with other sciences, economics makes use of " abstractions"; but if for some problems we employ symbolic processes of reasoning, we must keep clearly in view the limits of their significance, and neither endow the symbols with attributes they can never possess, nor lose sight of the realities behind them .

Every See also:

hypothesis must be tested by an See also:appeal to the facts of life, and modified or abandoned if it will not See also:bear examination, unless we are convinced on genuine See also:evidence that it may for a time be employed as a useful approximation, without prejudice to the later stages of the investigation we are conducting . We shall best illustrate the character and method of economic reasoning by examples, and for that purpose let us take first of wn t~1ns- all a purely historical problem, namely, the effect on trauon of the wage-earners of the See also:wages clauses of the See also:Statute of economic See also:Apprenticeship (1563) . It is at once obvious that we method are dealing not with an abstract See also:scheme of regulation in a hypothetical world, but with an act of See also:parliament nominally in force for two See also:hundred and fifty years, and applicable to a great variety of trades whose organization and history can be ascertained . The conclusions we reach may or may not modify any opinions we have formed as to the manner in which wages are determined under modern conditions . For the time being such opinions are irrelevant to the question we are investigating, and the less they are in our minds the better . There is no See also:reason why we should apply to this particular act a different method of inquiry from that we should apply to any other of the numerous acts, of more or less economic importance, passed in the same session of parliament . The first step is to see whether there is a prima facie See also:case for inquiry, for many acts of parliament have been passed which have never come into operation at all, or have been administered only for a short time on too limited a scale to have important or lasting results . The justices were authorized to See also:fix wages at the See also:Easter quarter sessions . Did they exercise their See also:powers ? To See also:answer this question we must collect the wages assessments sanctioned by the magistrates . This is a perfectly See also:simple and straightforward operation, involving nothing more than familiarity with records and industry in going through them . Without having recourse to any elaborate process of economic reasoning, by confining our attention to one simple question, namely, what happened, we can establish conclusions of the greatest See also:interest to economic historians and, further, define the problem we have to investigate .

We can show, for example: (r) that the Statute of Apprenticeship did not stand alone; it was one of a long series of similar measures, beginning more than two centuries before, which in their turn join on to the municipal and gild regulations of the middle ages; one of an important group of statutes, more or less closely interwoven throughout their history, administered by local authorities whose functions had grown largely in connexion with this legislation and the See also:

gradual differentiation of the trades and callings to which it related . (2) That wages were regulated with much greater frequency during the reigns of See also:Elizabeth, See also:James I. and See also:Charles I. than at any later period . (3) That they were regulated in some counties and not in others . (4) That in the counties and towns where they were regulated the action of the magistrates was in general spasmodic, and rarely continuous for a long series of years . (5) That the magistrates used their powers sometimes to raise wages, sometimes to force them down . (6) That the local See also:variations of wages and prices were what we should See also:call excessive, so that the standard of comfort in one district was very different from that of others . (y) That the wages assessments group themselves See also:round certain short periods, coincident in many instances with high prices, increase of poverty, and other causes of exceptional action . (8) That what we may call, with the above limitations, the effective period of the act terminates with the outbreak of the See also:Civil See also:War . (q) Thatsubsequent to that period organic changes in the industries affected, coupled with the incompetence of parliament to adapt the old legislation to new,conditions, and the growing See also:acceptance of the See also:doctrine of laissez faire, brought about a general disuse of the statute, though isolated attempts to enforce it were made and new acts applicable to certain trades were passed in the 18th century . (to) For more than one hundred years before the See also:repeal of the act, trade unions and other forms of voluntary association amongst wage-earners, combinations amongst employers, collective agreements, customary regulations, were established in many of the important trades of the country . But these conclusions, after all, suggest more difficulties than they remove, for they show that our inquiry, instead of presenting certain well-marked features which can be readily dealt with, has to be split up into a number of highly specialized studies: the investigation of rates of wages, prices and the standard of comfort in different localities, bye-industries, regularity of employment, the organization of particular trades, the economic functions of local authorities, apprenticeship and a See also:host of other subjects . Moreover, all these subjects hang together, so that it seems impossible to come to a decision about one of them without knowing all about the others .

It is a comparatively simple thing to state the , question to which we want an answer, but extremely difficult to define the exact nature of the evidence which will constitute a See also:

good answer; easy enough to say we must try hypothesis after hypothesis, and test each one by an appeal to the facts, but a man may easily spend his life in this sort of thing and still leave to his descendants nothing more than a See also:legacy of rejected hypotheses . Every See also:volume of records we look through contains a See also:mass of detailed information on the economic life of England in the period we are studying . How much of it is relevant to the subject of inquiry ? What is to be the principle of selection ? How shall we determine the relative weight and importance of different kinds of relevant evidence ? As in modem problems, so in those of past times, a man requires for success qualities quite distinct from those conferred by merely See also:academic training and the use of scientific methods . A correct sense of proportion and the See also:faculty of seizing upon the dominant factors in an historical problem are the result partly of the possession of certain natural gifts in which many individuals and some nations are conspicuously wanting, partly of general knowledge of the working of the economic and political institutions of the period we are studying, partly of what takes the place of practical experience in relation to modem problems, namely, detailed acquaintance with different kinds of original See also:sources and the historical See also:imagination by which we can realize the life and the ideals of past generations . These qualities are required all the more because, in order to make any further progress with such an inquiry, as we have' suggested, we have deliberately to make use of See also:abstraction as an See also:instrument of investigation . Let us see how this will work out . Suppose we have selected one of the numerous subsidiary problems suggested by the general inquiry, and obtained such full and complete The See also:plan information about one particular industry that we of a can tabulate the wages of the workers for a long series moral of years . We may do the same for other industries, '?' some of them coming under the Statute of Apprenticeship, others not . If all the industries belong to one economic area over which, so far as we can tell from general See also:statistics of wages and prices, and other information, fairly homogeneous conditions prevailed, we may be able to reach some useful conclusions as to the operation of the act .

But it would be absurd to suppose that we could reach those conclusions by simple reference to the trades themselves . We cannot assume that the fluctuations in wages were due to the action or inaction of magistrates without the most careful examination of the other influences affecting the trades . In economic affairs the See also:

argument See also:post hoc propter hoc never leads to the whole truth, and is frequently quite misleading . We cannot suppose that the policy of the Merchant Adventurers' See also:Company had nothing to do with the woollen industry; that the export trade in woollen See also:cloth was quite -independent of the 904 foreign exchanges and See also:international trade relations in those times; that the effect on wages of the state of the currency, the influx of new See also:silver, the character of the harvests, and many other influences can be conveniently ignored . In studying, therefore, such an apparently simple question as the effect of an act of parliament on wages in a small group of trades we want a general theory which we can use as a kind of See also:index of the factors we have to consider . Assuming that we have in our minds this safeguard against loose thinking and neglect of important factors, the investigation DIM of the special problems arising out of the general citifies due inquiry resolves itself into a careful See also:definition of each to want of problem we wish to deal with, and the collection, evidence. tabulation and interpretation of the evidence . In most cases the interpretation of the facts is far from obvious, and we have to try several hypotheses before we reach one which will bear the See also:strain of a See also:critical examination in the light of further evidence . But at this stage in historical investigation it is generally the want of evidence of a sufficiently complete and continuous character, rather than difficulties of method, which forces us to leave the problem unsolved . It is, for instance, practically impossible to obtain reliable evidence as to the regularity of employment in any industry in the 17th century, and the best approximations and devices we can invent are very poor substitutes for what we really want . For this reason guess-work must continue to play an important part in economic history . But every genuine See also:attempt to overcome its difficulties brings us into closer touch with the period we are examining; and though we may not be able to throw our conclusions into the form of large generalizations, we shall get to know something of the operation of the forces which determined the economic future of England; understand more clearly than our fore-fathers did, for we have more information than they could command, and a See also:fuller appreciation of the issues, the broad features of See also:English development, and be in a position to See also:judge fairly well of the measures they adopted in their time . By comparing England with other countries we may be able in the distant future to reach conclusions of some generality as to the laws of growth, maturity and decay of industrial nations .

But like the early statisticians of the 17th century, economic historians are the " beginners of an art not yet polished, which time may bring to more perfection." When we come to exclusively modern questions, there is no reason or necessity for a fundamental change of method . We The haves- cannot suppose that there occurred, at or about the illation of commencement of the 19th century, a See also:

breach of modern historical continuity of such a character that in-questions. stitutions, customs, laws and social conventions were suddenly swept away, the bonds of society loosened, and the state an